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Is an interest rate rise in the second half of 2011 now more likely?

As ever, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King played his cards close to his chest at the press conference following the release of the Bank’s latest Inflation Report. He repeatedly used words like “uncertain” and “uncertainty” to describe the economic course being charted by the UK.

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Average house prices have continued their “modest decline” according to the latest monthly survey from Halifax. But the market is benefitting from a number of factors – including the affordability of mortgage payments.

The lender’s figures show that house prices fell 1.4% in April, leaving the price of a typical home at £160,395. The fall contributes to an annual decline of 3.7%. Prices remain above levels seen in the spring of 2009 – but down by as much as a fifth on those at the peak of the market in 2007.

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Strong demand in the rental market is combining with improved availability of mortgage finance for landlords. And that’s good news for the buy-to-let market.

A series of surveys has highlighted the surge in demand for rented property in recent months. One factor is the difficulty faced by first time buyers in getting onto the property ladder, with almost a quarter estimating it will take them five years to raise a deposit, according to one survey.

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It looks like there will be more opportunities for borrowers to find cheaper mortgage deals after recent decisions by the Bank of England.

Pressure on the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates has abated after inflation dropped back in March, while disappointing economic data from manufacturing and the high street has convinced many that an early rise in rates would put the recovery at risk.

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The number of loans approved for buying homes increased to 47,557 in March, according to latest figures from the Bank of England. The monthly total was well ahead of the average for the previous six months, and the highest since November.

Meanwhile, approvals for remortgaging fell from levels seen in February, leaving them at 32,116, slightly below the six-monthly average. Totals in previous months were thought to reflect expectations of a rise in interest rates, with many borrowers seeking fixed-rate deals.

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Interest rates have been kept on hold at 0.5% for the 26th time by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee – with few expressing much surprise at the news.

In recent days fresh doubts have surfaced about the UK economy. With consumers voting with their wallets, surveys have told a tale of slowing growth in sectors such manufacturing, construction and services.

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House prices fell by 0.2% in April, according to the Nationwide. But the lender predicts that any further decline in the months ahead will be modest.

A three monthly comparison, which is said to give a better indication of the underlying trend, shows a 0.5% gain over average price levels recorded in the winter months.

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Could interest rates stay at record lows until 2012?

Economists are beginning to think so, after latest figures for manufacturing growth showed a marked slowdown. The Markit/CPIS index fell back from 56.7 in March to 54.6 – any figure above 50 indicating growth.

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Sales of homes worth more than a million pounds are on the up. That’s according to research from Lloyds TSB, based on figures from the Land Registry. Figures show that there were 7,185 sales of properties costing more than £1 million in 2010 – 54% more than in 2009. And that represents the biggest annual increase since 2006.

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A recent Bank of England survey gives a snapshot today’s housing market.

According to the latest Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions, the market has “softened” a little. It’s a term which sums up the slight weakening in demand earlier this spring, with jitters about jobs and household finances weighing on buyers’ minds. And of course first time buyers still face difficulties accessing mortgages.

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